Saturday, April 28, 2012
European Sovereign Debt Crisis: Where Is It Headed?
On The Money: Oil & Growth
This year has started out with a macro-driven wave of global optimism leading to a rally on financial markets. Because Russia is linked to the rest of the world via external trade and capital flows, global improvement supports Russia's economy and creates upside risks for the country's 2012 macroeconomic forecast.
However, a couple of months of positive statistics are not enough to form a stable recovery trend. While the US seems to be on the way to a genuine recovery, the situation in Europe remains complicated. Where will the oil price go? OtM is joined by Simon Fentham-Fletcher, Timothy Krause and Vladimir Tikhomirov.
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Possible Imminent Eurozone Collapse a Game-Changer for Gold
Gold is currently in a protracted period of consolidation and
expecting a break-out but it is unclear in which direction! Down to
$1,525 or up to $2,000 + - or maybe first one then the other.
Interesting times!
"Speak of the devil" is a common idiom, which in full is "Speak of the devil and he doth appear". In the same way one feels wary of commenting upon a possible economic collapse in Europe and the destruction of the Euro, for fear that it just might precipitate the event... despite the fact that we are all acutely conscious of the possibility. A case of the thought becoming mother to the deed. However, if gold is a barometer of just such an event then the temperature is nudging higher.
Gold saw tsunamis of physical gold demand in Europe in 2008 and 2010
when the availability of anything below a 400 oz gold bar (worth
$660,000) was simply not to be found for a several months. After a quiet
first quarter, there are grounds for supposing that another wave of
retail investment demand for gold might be just on the horizon.
In the year that we commemorate the loss of Titanic, it is worth
reflecting the crucial role of lifeboats in a crisis. Gold is a
particularly small market and were you to liquidate an entire year's
gold mine production at current market prices, it would have a market
cap of less than Vodafone - yet it is compared along with such
investment mammoths as the US dollar, the FTSE 100 and the DJIA. Gold
still represents less than one per cent of total assets under management
(AUM) and to rise to the levels of the 1980's (or by 2% of global
financial AUM) would require the creation of 85,000 tonnes of new
investment demand or 30 years of mine production.
It is still significantly under-owned.
It is still significantly under-owned.
Gold is currently in a protracted period of consolidation and
expecting a break-out. Technically it is unclear which way the market
could go - but fundamentally it looks likely that a sharp move to the
upside is a distinctly possibility based upon rising economic tensions
in Europe.
From a technical perspective, the long term gold charts seem to be
saying something big is going to happen, but unable to say clearly which
way. The short term patterns have been quite negative, prompting some
long liquidations (what you might call a "fake-out") but there is a
larger and more important chart shape emerging. The strongly bearish
scenario is formed by a remarkably steady trend line back to 2008 which,
if $1613 and $1600 were to be breached, would suggest an important
shift in market behavior.
Furthermore, gold has a descending triangle which technical analyst Peter Brandt suggests would be 'resolved' by a move downwards to $1525... a game changer. The bullish argument is that gold could be forming a massive "reverse head & shoulders pattern". The symmetry of this pattern, coupled with falling open interest, suggests a likely continuation considerably higher.
A breach of $1700 would then be confirmed by a close above $1800 with a target to breach $1920 (the previous all time high) topping out at $2080.
Furthermore, gold has a descending triangle which technical analyst Peter Brandt suggests would be 'resolved' by a move downwards to $1525... a game changer. The bullish argument is that gold could be forming a massive "reverse head & shoulders pattern". The symmetry of this pattern, coupled with falling open interest, suggests a likely continuation considerably higher.
A breach of $1700 would then be confirmed by a close above $1800 with a target to breach $1920 (the previous all time high) topping out at $2080.
The gold market has been characterized by flat prices and declining
open interest, as speculative interest fades. Usually the gold market
finds equilibrium or a "bottom" before the primary trend reasserts
itself - this seems to be what is happening now.
Ross Norman
Ross Norman
April 25, 2012
LONDON (SHARPS PIXLEY)
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
UK Economy Back into Recession
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
James Turk gives his timeline on the Dollar's Collapse
Welcome to Capital Account. With Italian and Spanish bond yields back on the rise, we've recently seen the Dutch government collapse under the weight of austerity talks and French president Nicolas Sarkozy defeated after the first-round of elections.
As price discovery is guarded against in the financial markets, are we seeing its emergence reflected in the delicacy of eurozone governments as discontent is being "priced into" the democratic process?
Central banks may not be waiting to find out if major currencies -- the euro or the US dollar -- will collapse or be devalued. They are stocking up on gold. IMF data shows Mexico added close to 17 tons of gold to its reserves in March. Turkey, Russia and Kazakhstan are buying gore too.
We speak with GoldMoney founder James Turk about why he thinks central banks could be guarding themselves from the confetti cannon currency being shot around the globe.
And in the US, we've seen oil prices become a political football in an election year. We'll look at what the onion market can teach us about oil speculation. What is really to blame for higher oil prices?
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Keiser Report: Beggars Without Borders
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Sunday, April 22, 2012
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Chossudovsky: IMF Solutions Cannot Solve EU Crisis
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief and the head of the World Bank have described the economic situation as fragile.
Fears have been growing that failing to safeguard the eurozone countries could lead other countries like Spain into a Greece-like situation.
Press TV has conducted an interview with Michel Chossudovsky, director of the Center for Research on Globalization.
Word of the Day: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Friday, April 13, 2012
Protect Your Wealth
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Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Friday, April 6, 2012
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
Silver is Money
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